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Asher Arian and Michal
Shamir, "A Decade Later, the World Had changed, the Cleavage
Structure Remained: Israel 1996-2006," Party
Politics, 14 (November, 2008), 685-705.
First paragraph:
Rent asunder by a persistent split between two opposing
views of the political environment, the enemy and the
solution, the Israeli polity has been unable to fashion a
persistent policy with which to face the combination of Arab
intransigence and Palestinian efforts to win independence
ever since f the leaders some of the time (Rabin, Barak,
Sharon) have been associated with dire reactions from some
Jews, including assassination, and fierce struggles over
legitimacy, as well as the outbreak of violence and terror
on the Palestinian side. At other times, less conciliatory
positions (Shamir, Netanyahu, Sharon) have been pursued;
these policies might have assuaged Jewish militants, but the
results have been neither stable nor pacific.
- Figures and
Tables:
- Figure 1. Model of difference, divide, and
cleavage
- Table 1. Scale types,a 1996 and 2006
- Table 2. Scale types (1-9) by attitudes and vote,
1996 and 2006
- Table 3. Means of external and internal scales by
religious observance, 1996 and 2006
- Figure 2. Probabilities of voting Kadima, Labor and
Likud, by issue positions
Second to Last
Paragraph:
The restructuring of the party system in 2006 was
unmistakably along the major cleavage dimension of Israeli
politics, and was buttressed by the prevailing social
divides of religiosity, class and ethnicity. Their role did
not change; if anything, it may even have been heightened
(Shamir et al., 2008). The shifting vote patterns were not
grounded in changing social coalitions or issue dimensions,
they built upon and restated the existing ones. No
significant new dimension emerged, nor was there any
indication of a shakeup of the traditional social bases of
the vote. The social-economic agenda promoted by Amir
Peretz, which seemed to eclipse security concerns early on
in the campaign, lost its lead as the campaign dragged on.
The socialeconomic cleavage did not emerge as a significant
dimension in most voters' considerations, nor did it
materialize in a significant redrawing of the social basis
of the vote. Amir Peretz as Minister of Defence, and the
insignificance of Labor in the formulation of social and
economic policy in Olmert's government, banished the thought
that this cleavage could emerge as a dominant force in
Israeli politics in the foreseeable future. The territories,
and more essentially the collective identity dilemmas we
illuminated in this article, remained the major issues of
contention. Kadima is primarily one more milestone on the
long road to dealignment of the Israeli party system, and
the strong hold of the territories as the primary driver of
the Israeli political system.
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