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Adrian Blau, "The Effective
Number of Parties at Four Scales: Votes, Seats, Legislative
Power and Cabinet Power," Party Politics, 14 (March,
2008), 167-187.
First paragraph:
Political scientists often disagree about how to count
parties. In this article, I argue that how we count depends
on where we look. The now-dominant 'effective number of
parties' index is based on votes and seats, but says little
directly about power; Duverger, Sartori and others look more
at competition for government but make dubious assumptions
about counting parties. I seek the best of both worlds by
combining the technical advantages of the effective number
of parties index with a focus on power. I therefore estimate
two new measures: the effective number of parties in terms
of legislative power, based on modifying Powell's (2000)
method for estimating government and opposition influence,
and the effective number of parties in terms of cabinet
power, based on party shares of cabinet
portfolios.
- Figures and
Tables:
- Figure 1. Effective numbers of parties in votes,
seats, legislative power and cabinet power
- Table 1. Mean effective numbers of parties, UK and
Germany
- Table 2. Mean absolute and relative reductions in
parties, UK and Germany
- Table 3. Mean longer-term effective numbers of
parties, UK and Germany
- Table 4. Estimated legislative power in the UK
- Table 5. Estimated legislative power in Germany
- Table 6. Party shares of cabinet portfolios in UK
coalition governments, 1931-1945
- Table 7. Party shares of cabinet portfolios in German
governments, 1949-2005
Last paragraph:
Overall, I hope I have advanced the debate about the 'right'
method of counting parties: there is no single answer. And I
hope I have advanced the debate about the 'right'
description of the number of parties in a given system: we
can count parties not just at one point only, but at four,
or more when we include different regions and timescales. We
can talk not of the number (singular) but of the numbers
(plural) of parties. Given the importance of comparison in
political science, we can compare in five ways: (a) we can
compare numbers of parties at different stages of the
political process, to see the reduction of parties over the
political process; (b) we can compare numbers of parties to
normative requirements, to see how well proportional or
pluralitarian norms are met; (c) we can compare numbers of
parties over time, to see how the system changes; (d) we can
compare numbers of parties over space, to get cross-national
or sub-national insights; and (e) we can compare numbers of
parties to other important phenomena, like electoral
systems, cabinet stability, policy output and so on. Of
course, we must also address how we measure legislative and
executive power. While my estimates of NL and NC are robust
enough for the comparisons in this article, NL in particular
must be refined in the future.
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