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Johannes Moenius and Yuko
Kasuya, "Measuring Party Linkage Across Districts: Some
Party System Inflation Indices and their Properties,"
Party Politics, 10 (September, 2004),
543-564.
First Paragraph:
This article introduces some
improved measures that gauge the degree of party linkage,
defined as the extent to which parties are uniformly
successful in winning votes across districts. While this
issue has been relatively neglected in the literature on
party politics until recently, it is of vital importance if
one is trying to understand the formation of national-level
party systems. The examples of the US and India illustrate
this point. In both cases, the system of election for the
lower chamber is a single-member district plurality system.
At the district level, the effective number of parties (the
number of parties seriously contesting elections) for both
countries is around two. In other words, it appears that
both countries have a twoparty system at the district level,
on average. However, when we nationally aggregate votes and
calculate the effective number of parties at the national
level, a very different picture arises. While the US remains
a twoparty system at the national level, India has a very
fragmented national party system in which the effective
number of parties is about seven. This difference stems from
variation in the degree of linkage. India is an example of
poor linkage, in that parties across districts have very
different degrees of success in gaining votes. Thus, at the
national level, the aggregate size of the party system
becomes highly inflated. The case of the US, on the other
hand, exhibits high linkage, in that the same set of parties
competes across districts with equal strength. In high
linkage cases, there is little inflation when local-level
party systems are aggregated to the national
level.
Figures and Tables:
Figure 1.
Conceptual scheme of national party system formation
Figure 2. Degree of party linkage as a continuum
Figure 3. Iteration sequence for ëdistributed
monopolyí case
Figure 4. Simulating distributed monopoly of parties
(introducing competition from larger districts)
Figure 5. Simulating concentrated monopoly of parties
(introducing competition from larger districts)
Figure 6. Simulating concentrated monopoly of parties
(introducing competition from smaller districts)
Table 1. Comparison of inflation measures for four
countries
Table 2. Comparison of Italian elections of 1987,
1992, 1994
Table 3. Regional-level party system inflation rates
and effective number of parties in Italy, 1994 election
Table 4. District-level contribution to national
party system inflation
Figure 7. Histogram of distribution of Ii* for
Germany, India, Italy, and the US
Last Paragraph:
In this article we introduced some improved measures to
gauge the degree of party linkage, which refers to the
degree to which parties are uniformly successful in winning
votes across districts. We built upon Coxís measure,
which gauges party linkage in terms of the inflation of the
national party system size in comparison to the average,
district-level party system size. We first suggested an
alternative party system inflation measure that is intuitive
and easy to interpret. We then introduced what we believe to
be a relevant weighting method to our suggested inflation
measure in order to adjust for the variation in district
sizes across districts. Further, we proposed what we called
a local inflation measure, which enabled us to analyze which
subnational areas contribute to the national party system
inflation, as well as the extent of their contribution. We
explored the theoretical properties of these measures,
examined how they behave in numerical simulations, and
finally applied these measures to the cases of India, Italy,
Germany, and the US to show their usefulness in the analysis
of real-world phenomena.
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