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Michael Laver, "Analysing
Structures of Party Preference in Electronic Voting Data,"
Party Politics, 10 (September, 2004),
521-541.
First Paragraph:
In the 2002 Irish general
election, 138,011 voters in three of the 42 constituencies
cast their votes electronically, as part of a trial that
will lead to electronic voting throughout Ireland by the
next general election. Ireland uses the single transferable
vote (STV) electoral system, each vote registered requiring
the voter to rank the candidates contesting the
constituency.1 Voters may rank any number of candidates,
from just one to every candidate in the race. The
publication of the full set of anonymized electronic ballots
has generated very rich data on the candidate rankings of a
large number of voters in a real general election. This
article presents a preliminary analysis of these data. The
intention is both to reveal systematically for the first
time a range of features of Irish voting behaviour and to
draw more general inferences about the structure of voter
preferences.
Figures and Tables:
Table 1.
Maximum number of preferences expressed by voters
Table 2. Percentages of voters registering N
rankings
Table 3. Voting for multi-candidate parties
Figure 1. Number of preferences registered by voters
by first preference party
Table 4. Mean proportions of ëbustí
ballots, by first preference party
Table 5. Mean preference rankings of candidate
Table 6. Rank order correlations (Spearman's rho)
between candidate rankings
Last Paragraph:
This article has merely scratched the surface of a rich
new data set. For those interested in the general structure
of party preferences, much more detailed analysis may reveal
the extent to which voters have detailed preferences that
extend across all of the options on offer, or in contrast
use more general categorizations of options into what they
do, and do not, like. Furthermore, the low levels of
consistent party as opposed to candidate voting revealed in
these data invite additional comparative research. For those
interested in estimating spatial representations of party
competition, there are many possible ways to analyse
estimates of similarities and dissimilarities between
parties that the electronic voting data can generate. For
those interested in electoral systems, it will be
interesting to explore how STV generates broad proportional
representation of parties, despite the relatively low levels
of party voting demonstrated here. And for those who are
indeed interested in the red meat of Irish party politics,
electronic voting data are clearly going to provide an
entirely new intellectual armoury.
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