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Kenneth Benoit and Michael
Marsh, "For a Few Euros More: Campaign Spending Effects in
the Irish Local Elections of 1999," Party Politics, 9
(September 2003), 561-582.
First Paragraph:
The assumption underlying the legislation on party and
campaign finance introduced in most liberal democracies in
the past 50 years is that money matters. While national
approaches to controlling the effects of money on
elections differ, the standard repertoire includes spending
disclosure, spending limits and the provision of state
funding. Disclosure legislation accepts the electoral
consequences but seeks to lessen policy consequences by at
least forcing parties and candidates to show how much they
spend and explain where it came from. Spending limits
take this a stage further, ostensibly enforcing a level
playing field for all, although particularly where these
limits are high considerable inequality may persist.
Finally, public funding provides all candidates with
financial resources, although normally those who are more
successful get more money.
Figures and
Tables:
Table 1: Candidates, spending, and votes in the 1999 Irish
local elections
Table 2: OLS regression of votes on spending, incumbency and
registered voters
Table 3: OLS regression of votes on candidate spending as a
percentage of total district spending, incumbency and
registered voters
Figure 1: Candidate vote as a proportion of the electorate,
by log of candidate percentage spending, for (a) challengers
and (b) incumbents
Table 4: Intra-party effects: OLS regression of candidate's
percentage of the party vote on candidate's percentage of
total party spending in the district
Table 5: Logit regression of winning a seat on relative
spending, incumbency and district size
Fiure 2: Effect of increasing percentage of spending on
proability ofwinning a seat, comparing challengers and
incumbents.
Last Paragraph:
Our study has two findings that should be of general
interest beyond the context of Irish local politics. First,
what we have observed here is, in a microcosm, the process
by which spending drives electoral success even at the local
level, where spending is measured in terms that are, by
comparison, minute. As a litmus test for the ability of
campaign spending to affect election outcomes, our argument
is that if we can observe effects in this context, then this
is strong evidence that campaign spending does matter
generally. Second, this article offers a preliminary look at
the impact of spending in an STV election, something that no
previous study of campaign spending has examined. A natural
extension of the analysis would be to see how much spending
matters in a parliamentary election in the same national
context. Because obtaining reliable instruments for spending
is likely to be just as difficult in other multiparty
contexts, we also imagine that the approach taken here of
examining relative, rather than absolute, spending may have
useful applications elsewhere. In particular we intend to
examine in future research the effects of spending in STV
elections to the Irish Dáil, something now possible
owing to the mandatory disclosure of candidate and party
spending in the general election of May 2002. We also intend
to explore the political context of spending, since more
information is readily available about expected results in
particular constituencies in a national election. Our
expectation is that if seats can also be 'bought' in the
general election the price will be somewhat
higher.
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