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Jack Bielasiak and David Blunck, "Past and Present in
Transitional Voting: Electoral Choices in Post-Communist
Poland," Party Politics, 8 (September 2002,"
563-585.
First Paragraph:
Party system formation has claimed much attention from
scholars interested in the new democracies of Central and
Eastern Europe. These inquiries generally have a twofold
thrust, addressing both the level and character of party
system development. The first question is whether the supply
and demand sides of the competitive party politics (parties
and voters) are approaching equilibrium, culminating in
'consolidation' (Bielasiak, 1997; Olson, 1998; Rivera,
1996). The second issue concerns the form of the emerging
party-electorate equilibria. Scholars have examined this
topic by mapping social and ideological cleavages present in
the electorate, and then seeing how party positions
correspond to the geography of the electorate (Evans and
Whitefield, 1993; Markowski, 1997; Miller and White, 1998).
This approach is an appealing way to represent the main
elements of competitive party systems, because it presents
the relative proximities of parties and electoral groups on
the main cleavage dimensions.
Figures and Tables:
Figure 1. Vote Shares by Organizational Affiliation
Figure 2. Odds of Voting for SLD vs. Liberals (N = 779) by
Organizational Affiliation and Pro-Market Attitudes
Figure 3. Odds of Voting for SLD vs. Right (N = 779) by
Organizational Affiliation and Pro-Market Attitudes
Figure 4. Attitudes & Vote Choice: Factor Change Plot (N
= 869)
Figure 5. Economics & Vote Choice: Factor Change Plot (N
= 854)
Table 1. Changes in Expected Voting Probabilities Given
Standardized Change
Last Paragraph:
The natural expectation is that the saliency of the past in
voting behavior and party competition is bound to erode with
time, or at least be recast in a new discourse. Theory
suggests that time attenuates the effects of the past on the
present. First of all, demographic factors come into play.
Voters old enough to have experienced the pre-transition
period will gradually be replaced in the electorate by young
voters with experience only in the posttransition period.
Moreover, as economic interest groups crystallize in the new
era, they are likely to cut across the Solidarity versus
Communist Party heritage, rendering them less germane to the
voter. Despite these trends, the past continues to have a
strong bearing on post-communist politics. Certainly in
Poland questions of decommunization have played an important
role in recent Polish public debates, including formulation
of the new 1997 constitution and the 2000 presidential
elections (Misztal, 1999). A new discourse of politics has
taken shape around the legacy of the past, one that
continues to affect voters' identities and preferences, so
that the past continues to serve as an important guidepost
to electoral choice
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