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James Forrest and Gary N. Marks, "The Mass Media,
Election Campaigning and Voter Response: The Australian
Experience," Party Politics, 5 (January 1999),
99-114.
First Paragraph:
In a situation where contemporary election campaigns are
increasingly dominated by national television, radio and
press coverage, the financial resources required by
political parties to mount such campaigns are considerable,
and increasing. A whole new body of literature focusing on
'capital intensive politics' has developed to analyse
election campaign advertising in all its forms and its
impact on voters. Some of this research on the effects of
the 'new-age' forms of campaigning and election advertising
has been discouraging in that it suggests little significant
impact on election outcomes. Others, however, argue that the
effects may be understated and of critical importance in
marginal seats. Certainly, research at the local
constituency level indicates that the more a party spends on
advertising, relative to its opponents, the more votes it
wins.
Figures and Tables:
Table 1: Log-likelihood improvement to explanation of voter
behaviour by inclusion of campaign related news, advertising
and events in addition to other sources of voter support
Table 2: Effects of political advertising and related
factors on those who considered changing their vote during
the election campaign, and those who did change their vote
between 1987 and 1990 (logistic regression coefficients)
Table 3: Detailed effects of political advertising and
related factors on those who made up their mind how they
would vote before the election campaign begun, during the
last few days of the campaign, and on election day itself
(logistic regression coefficients)
Appendix: Variables used in the analysis.
Last Paragraph:
Media coverage of election campaigns deals, by definition,
with contemporary issues and events. These change from one
election to another. For example, that Labor won the 1990
election on the preferences of Democrat and Green voters is
a major reason why this study identified so many negative
campaign effects on Labor's primary vote. Given that each
election campaign has a unique constellation of campaign
events and media interests, the challenge ahead lies in work
yet to be done on different election campaigns before any
definitive conclusions can be drawn about the role of the
mass media during election campaigns in Australia.
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