Peter Mair and Tomokazu Sakano, "Japanese Political Realignment in Perspective: Change or Restoration?" Party Politics, 4 (April 1998), 177-201.

First Paragraph:
In this paper we argue that neither the loss of the LDPs majority position, nor the subsequent emergence of a new coalition Politics, should be seen as marking a really fundamental change in the Japanese party system. In particular, we will suggest that there is little in the external environment, whether socio-economic or institutional, that would have led us to anticipate a fundamental change at this time, and that those shifts that have taken place have proved sufficiently limited to enable the LDP to return to a dominant role within the system. As we will show, what was involved here was less a political earthquake and more the outcome of a somewhat unpredictable but closely fought set of inter- and intra-party manoeuverings, in which the failure to exclude the LDP from power in the longer term has allowed the party to recover much of its integrative capacity. In other words, and yet again (e.g. Rose and Mackie, 1988), we appear to be witnessing a case of changes being required in order for things to remain more or less the same.

Figures and Tables:
Table 1: House of representatives election results: seats and vote percentage
Table 2: Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly election
Table 3: Public support for political parties, October 1996-September 1997 (%)
Figure 1: Long-term changes in party support
Table 4: The LDP seniority system

Last Paragraph:
For this reason also, we are less inclined to give too much weight to the changes that occurred in Japan in the early 1990s. Certainly the system is now more open than it was and, strictly speaking, the LDP is no longer in a predominant position. Nevertheless, it still remains the biggest single party, continuing to enjoy a powerful strategic advantage. Moreover, while continuing in power may well require it to come to terms with one or more of its erstwhile opponents, it is unlikely that this will require it to cede its still dominant position. It is in this sense that restoration rather than fundamental change seems the more appropriate picture at present, as well as the more likely path for the future.